Tuesday, January 25, 2005
I really liked calculus when I learned it in high school. It was almost a transcendental experience. It was the first math class that I took that explained the world. As much as I loved calculus though, I can no longer say it's the most important math. I am now convinced that a good working knowledge of probability and statistics is essential to making sense of the world. I couldn't tell you the difference between a Gaussian distribution and a Poisson distribution. Nor could I tell you how to calculate a confidence interval. I do know that random events can often be aggregated into a distribution. I do know that you can never know anything for sure from a subset of the data and how that uncertainty varies. I know that coincidence is inevitable. I know that good strategies often don't succeed the first time, and that bad strategies often succeed for a while. I know that, in the long run, just a couple percentage points make a huge difference. All of these things make me richer, safer, and happier. Not knowing those things will make you poorer, less safe, and more frustrated. It's not about making really smart decisions, just avoiding stupid ones. Unfortunately, probability and statistics tend to be taught by the dullest, driest instructors around. That's really too bad because it could be really fascinating if taught right. I know that I didn't learn all I could have because I had a boring professor. There is hope out there. There are books for people who hate statistics. You (and I) should read them. We'll be better people for it.